“一带一路”能否助推我国全球价值链攀升——基于基础设施建设的中介效应分析

提升全球价值链地位是新发展格局下畅通国际循环的应有之义，"一带一路"倡议提出已近7年，其对我国全球价值链地位的影响究竟如何仍有待科学论证。文章基于2009-2017年我国30个省市的面板数据，采用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID），考察了"一带一路"倡议的提出对我国全球价值链地位提升的影响，并从传统基础设施建设与新型基础设施建设的双重视角探讨其内在逻辑。研究发现："一带一路"倡议有效提升了我国GVC地位，且政策效应具有滞后性。将基础设施建设纳入多重中介效应模型检验发现，基础设施建设是"一带一路"建设提升GVC地位的重要途径；并且，当前传统基础设施建设对GVC地位的提升力度（1.94%）依然高于新型基础设施建设（0.09%）。进一步，面板门槛回归模型的结果表明基础设施结构具有门槛效应，新基建投资占比超过23.11%以后，其对GVC地位的中介效应才能凸显。实现基础设施的"双轮驱动"作用，需进一步加大对新基建的关注。上述结论对于"一带一路"建设背景下，科学推动基础设施建设，进而促进我国GVC地位提升具有一定的启示意义。

Can the Belt and Road Improve Global Value Chain Positions in China: Analysis of Mediating Effect Based on the Infrastructure Construction

Promoting the positions of Global Value Chain is significant for unimpeded international circulation under a new development pattern. The Belt and Road initiative has been put forward for nearly 7 years and its impact on China's Global Value Chain positions remains to be demonstrated scientifically. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2017, this paper adopts the PSM-DID method to investigate the impact of The Belt and Road initiative on the Global Value Chain positions. Meanwhile, we also explore its internal logic from the dual perspectives of traditional infrastructure construction and new infrastructure construction. The research finds that The Belt and Road initiative has effectively promoted the positions of Global Value Chain in China, and the policy effect has hysteresis. Integrating infrastructure construction into the Multiple Mediating Effect Model, it shows that infrastructure construction is an issential way for The Belt and Road initiative upgrading the positions of Global Value Chain. In addition, the influence of traditional infrastructure construction on Global Value Chain positions (1.94%) is still greater than that of new infrastructure construction (0.09%).Furthermore, the results of the panel threshold regression model prove that the infrastructure structure has a threshold effect. Only when the investment proportion of new infrastructure exceeds 23.11% can the mediating effect of new infrastructure investment on Global Value Chain positions be highlighted. Realizing the Two-Wheel Drive function of infrastructure requires more attentionr on new infrastructure construction. The conclusions above have some implication for promoting the China's Global Value Chain positions through infrastructure construction scientifically under the background of The Belt and Road initiative.