| 山东省粮食生产系统的动态关联分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 廉丽姝,王慧,宋晓言.山东省粮食生产系统的动态关联分析[J].国土与自然资源研究,2005(1):19-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 廉丽姝 王慧 宋晓言 |
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| 作者单位： | 曲阜师范大学资源与规划学院,山东,曲阜,273165;华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院地理系;曲阜师范大学资源与规划学院,山东,曲阜,273165 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省教委社科项目(J02J02) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色关联理论和模型，分析了山东省粮食总产量与各影响因子的动态关联程度；认为影响山东省粮食生产的首要制约因素是粮食单产，其次是农业自然灾害和复种指数，而农业机械总动力、化肥施用量和农村用电量对粮食产量影响较小；提出了加大农业科技投入、加快中低产田改造、加强农田水利建设、发展节水技术等稳定发展粮食生产的对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 山东省 粮食生产 影响因素 灰色关联 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7853(2005)01-0019-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月14日 |
Grey incidence analysis between crop and its affecting aactors in Shandong Province |
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| LIAN Li-shu et al.Grey incidence analysis between crop and its affecting aactors in Shandong Province[J].Territory & Natural Resources Study,2005(1):19-21. |
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| Authors: | LIAN Li-shu |
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| Abstract: | According to the statistical data during the last 50 years in Shandong Province, factors affecting grain production are analyzed by theory of grey system. The results are: (1)Total grain yield and grain yield per unit area showed a fluctuant increasing tendency since 1949;(2)Grain yield per unit is the most important factor that affect total grain yield; (3)Natural disasters in agriculture, multiple crop index and effective irrigated area cause the variation of grain yield remarkably. The author consider that relying on the advance of science and technology, strengthening construction of water conservancy works, developing technique of economize on water and improving low yield cropland are the key measures to realize the sustainable development of grain production in Shandong. |
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| Keywords: | grey incidence grain production affecting factors Shandong Province |
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