利率和货币供应量对我国房地产投资的影响

针对利率与货币供应量对我国房地产投资的影响问题,本文的实证研究表明:在长期,利率。货币供应量与房地产投资占总固定资产投资的比例之间存在着稳定的协整关系,且均为正相关。货币供应量对房地产投资有一定的调控作用,但力度有限。值得强调的是,利率与房地产投资占比的正相关悖论揭示了利率并不是调控房地产投资的有效手段。在短期,利率与货币供应量对房地产投资的影响性质与长期情况是相同的,但影响并不显著。所以,利率与货币供应量这两个主要的宏观货币政策手段不能作为调控房地产投资的主要方式。要对房地产投资进行有效调控,必须依靠其它方式。

The Effect of Interest Rate and Money Supply Impose on Real Estate Investment: in China An Empirical Analysis

Through empirical analysis on the issues of interest rate,money supply and the real estate investment,this research has drew following conclusions: In the long run,there is a stable positive cointegrated relationship among interest rate,money supply and the ratio of real estate investment and gross fixed assets investment.Money supply has somewhat effect on the real estate investment,but the effectiveness is limited.It is need to emphasize that the absurdity of interest rate and the ratio of real estate investment tell us: interest rate is NOT the effective instrument of controlling the real estate investment.In the short run,interest rate and money supply have the same influence on the real estate investment,but it is also not remarkable.So,the two main instruments of macro-monetary policy-interest rate and money supply can NOT be used as the main methods of controlling the real estate investment.It should depend on other ways to control the real estate investment effectively.