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Analysing long memory and asymmetries
Authors:Matti Vir
Abstract:The paper presents evidence on nonlinearities in Finnish financial time series. The analysis concentrates on the so-called long-memory property which is examined using, various alternative test procedures. This analysis makes use of relatively long monthly Finnish time series which cover the period 1922–1996. The results give some evidence on long memory but one cannot say that the results would overwhelmingly support the existence of long memory in Finnish time series. There are, however, considerable differences between variables and the results are quite sensitive in terms of the treatment of short memory which also applies to different ways of prefiltering the data. Clearly more work is required to obtain more affirmative results in this respect. One way, of doing that is to apply asymmetric time models to find the source of nonlinearity. When that is done with the Finnish data some weak evidence on asymmetry is obtained.
Keywords:Long Memory Forecasting Nonlinear Models
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