基于ELES模型的我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性分析

利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助SPSS13.0统计软件对2009年我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性进行实证分析。结果发现农村居民人均年纯收入与各项消费支出高度相关;农村居民各项消费需求自价格弹性都为负值,位居前三位的分别是交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务;农村居民各项消费需求互弹性都小于0,互价格弹性绝对值小于自价格弹性绝对值;各类消费品价格变动对交通通讯需求量影响最大;食品价格变动对其他各类消费品需求量影响最大。最后提出降低交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务价格、调整食品价格,使食品价格保持在合理水平、提高农村居民收入等建议。

Analysis of Price Elasticity of Rural Residents' Consumption Demand in China Based on ELES Model

Using ELES model,this paper analyses empirically the price elasticity of rural residents’ consumption demand in China in 2009 with the help of SPSS13.0 Statistical software.Results show that per capita annual net income of rural residents and various consumption expenditures are highly related;consumption demand self price elasticity of rural residents is negative,the top three is the transportation and communications,residence,culture,education,entertainment products and services;the consumption demand cross price elasticity of rural residents is less than 0,cross price elasticity absolute value is less than the self price elasticity absolute value;consumption goods prices changes have the greatest influence on the transportation and communications demand;food prices changes on the other types of consumption demand have the greatest impact.Finanlly the paper puts forward some suggestions of reducing the prices of the transportation and communications,residence,culture,education,entertainment products and services,adjusting food prices,keeping food prices at a reasonable level,and increasing rural residents’ income etc.