中国消费碳排放的测度及影响因素研究

本文采用(进口)非竞争型投入产出模型测算了2002-2009年中国二氧化碳的生产排放、消费排放、出口排放及进口排放,并采用投入产出结构分解方法对消费排放与出口排放的影响因素进行了分解分析。生产排放量与消费排放量分别从405509.15MT与407266.16MT增加至602281.91MT与573106.09MT。除2002年外,其余年份生产排放量都大于消费排放量,缘由在于此间出口含碳量都大于进口含碳量。分解结果显示,在研究期间,国内最终需求规模和进口规模的扩张是消费排放增长的主要原因,出口规模是出口排放增长的主要原因,最终消费及中间产品的需求逐步趋向于高碳排放产品,中间投入技术呈一定进步趋势,但能源效率得到较大程度的改善,但能源结构和出口结构仍不够理想。

Study on Measurement and Impact Factors of Consumption-based Carbon Emission in China

Consumption-based carbon emission and the carbon contents China’s trade from 2002 to 2009 was accounted by non-competitive(import) input-output tables,and the model of Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis is used to analyze the driving factors.Production-based and Consumption-based emission is 405509.15Mt and 407266.16MT in 2002 and 602281.91Mt and 573106.09MT in 2009.China has become a net carbon exporting country since 2005.The increase of consumption-based carbon emission is mainly caused by increased scale of imports and domestic demand,the increase of carbon emission embodied in export is mainly caused by increased scale of export.The structure of domestic final consumption,intermediate inputs,energy and export increase carbon emission.Energy efficiency and intermediate input technology reduce carbon emission.