中俄互补性果蔬产品贸易发展动态及影响因素分析

随着"一带一路"建设的持续推进,中俄互补性果蔬产品贸易作为两国经贸合作的重要结合点,迎来广阔的发展前景。当前,中俄果蔬产品互补性显著、经贸合作持续升温,但也面临供需产品错位、农业投资合作有限、价格优势弱化、品牌亮度不够、绿色贸易壁垒冗杂、贸易结合度不稳定等一系列问题。提取了7个影响中国对俄罗斯果蔬产品出口的因素,利用灰色关联度分析法,分析了各自变量与贸易规模之间的关联程度。研究结果表明,在7个影响因素中,供给水平的影响作用最强,需求水平和价格水平、贸易互补性程度位于次强地位,而其余要素的影响程度相对较弱。通过影响因子的关联程度比较,能够指出中俄果蔬产品贸易拓展的侧重点。

Analysis of the development trend and influencing factors of complementary fruit and vegetable trade between China and Russia

With the continuous advancement of the Belt and Road, China-Russia complementary fruit and vegetable trade, as an important joint point of economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, ushered in broad development prospects. At present, China-Russia fruit and vegetable products are significantly complementary and economic and trade cooperation continues to heat up, but they are also facing a series of problems such as the dislocation of supply and demand products, limited agricultural investment cooperation, the weakening of price advantage, insufficient brand brightness, redundant green trade barriers, and unstable trade integration. In this paper, seven factors affecting China’s export of fruits and vegetables to Russia are extracted, and the correlation between their variables and trade scale was analyzed by using grey correlation analysis method. The results show that among the seven influencing factors, the supply level has the strongest effect, the demand level and price level, and the degree of trade complementarity are in the second strongest position, while the impact of other factors is relatively weak. Through the correlation degree comparison of the impact factors, we can point out the focus of the expansion of China-Russia fruit and vegetable trade.