货币政策房地产市场传导机制研究--基于SVAR模型的实证分析

基于2000-2013年房地产市场相关月度时间序列数据，构建货币政策房地产市场传导机制的理论框架，建立8个变量的结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）分析货币政策、房地产供给需求和消费投资等实体经济变量的相互关系，研究表明货币政策尤其是利率政策能显著影响房地产供给需求，但房地产需求对消费的正向冲击影响十分有限，对投资反而产生负向冲击。由此提出，利率政策应当关注房地产价格波动，避免房地产价格非理性上涨对宏观经济的负面影响。

Can the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Function Well in Chinese Housing Market--based on an SVAR model

This paper proposed a framework of the monetary transmission mechanism in housing market,based on an SVAR model of 8 variables,using the monthly time series data of Chinese housing market from 2000 to 2013,empirically tested the interaction of monetary policy,housing supply＆amp;demand,consumption and investment. The results show that,the interest policy can take an active effect on housing supply＆ demand,but housing demand gives an limited positive impulse to consumption,while giving a negative impulse to investment.To prevent the damage of irrational housing bubbles to economy,it is necessary to take housing prices fluctuating into the consideration of interest policy.