基于扩散指数模型的房地产市场景气循环研究——以北京市为例

基于扩散指数模型构建房地产市场景气循环指标体系，采用北京市住宅市场与经济基本面的历史数据，计算不同时期北京市房地产市场的扩散指数，绘制北京市房地产市场的景气循环曲线，并根据景气循环曲线与历史数据对北京市未来房地产市场的景气情况进行预测。最后，提出在上述市场预测情况下的市场调控策略。

Beijing Real Estate Market Business Cycle Study Based on Diffusion Index Model

The business cycle and early warning of Beijing real estate market are focused on in this study. Firstly, an indicator system is proposed according to diffusion index model. Secondly, diffusion index is calculated with the historical data of Beijing＇s real estate market and economic fundamentals based on the indicator system. Thirdly, the diffusion index curve of Beijing real estate market business cycle is revealed and early warnings are stated based on data collected and the curve revealed. At last, market regulation strategies for the market situation forecasted are proposed as a policy making reference