经济转型期中国农村居民预防性储蓄研究 --1978～2003年实证研究

文章利用1978～2003年样本数据通过消费函数的变参数空间状态模型研究了经济转型期中国农村居民超敏感度消费行为,实证研究结果表明,农户存在着显著的"预防性储蓄"动机.在此基础上,文章利用附加"预防性储蓄"动机的消费模型和ARCH结构对预防性动机强度进行了估计,检验结果发现未来预期收入中存在显著的不确定性,这表明在目前农村总需求不足的情形下,降低"预防性储蓄"动机和流动性约束将是扩张社会消费需求的重要政策.

The Chinese Rural Precautionary Saving and its Degree of Motivation during the Economic Transition: 1978 ～ 2003

The paper studies the oversensitive consumption behaviors of Chinese rural people based on the state space model using the sample during 1978-2003. The results show that there exists obvious motivation of precautionary saving. Then going on estimating the degree of motivation by ARCH model, it concludes that Chinese rural people are uncertain about their future income, which indicates that under the present condition of demand shortage in rural areas, it is important for the government to reduce the motivation of precautionary saving and the liquidity constraint.