中国外汇储备增长的因素分析与对策探讨

中国外汇储备已突破2万亿美元大关,人民币汇率的低估被认为是外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。通过实证分析发现,中国外汇储备的增长受到贸易条件、相对技术进步和外商直接的投资等因素变量的影响,人民币实际汇率对外汇储备增长的影响并不显著,通过人民币实际汇率大幅升值来调整外汇储备增长的做法是不可取的。当前应该采取措施促进非贸易部门的技术进步,适当增加进口,优化外资引进政策以减缓外汇储备的快速增长。

On the Factors of Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve's Rising and Countermeasure

Chinese foreign exchange reserve has exceeded two thousand billion dollars. The undervalued exchange rate is regarded as the primary factor in the rising of it. This paper makes a demonstration and concludes that Chinese foreign exchange reserve rising is effected by trade conditions, relative progress on technology and foreign direct investment. There is no obvious effect on exchange reserve from RMB real exchange rate. Currently, reasonable measurement should be taken to promote the non- trade department＇s technology advancement, suitably increases the import, and optimized foreign capital introduction policy simultaneously so as to slow down the fast growth of foreign exchange reserve in China.