数字金融发展能促进返乡农民工再就业吗*——基于中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）的经验分析

互联网技术推动数字金融快速发展，对于降低融资约束和创业成本，推动我国返乡农民工创业就业，助力乡村振兴战略实现，具有十分重要的意义。本文通过构建理论模型，研究数字金融对返乡农民工再就业的影响，并使用中国数字普惠金融指数和中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据进行实证检验。研究发现：数字金融发展水平每提高一个标准差，促进返乡农民工非农就业概率提高0062个单位～021个单位，并使其农业就业概率降低0071个单位～022个单位。数字金融能够降低融资和创业成本，吸引返乡农民工在农村地区开展机会型创业，由此创造就业岗位，促进收入提升；相比之下，数字金融对进城农民工创业及收入没有显著影响。异质性分析显示，数字金融能够显著促进低物质资本、低人力资本的返乡农民工开展机会型创业，并对高儿童抚养比的返乡农民工有更强的普惠性。本文为返乡农民工等重点人群“稳就业”、推动农村信息化与乡村振兴战略实现，提供经验证据与政策依据。

WILL FINTECH DEVELOPMENT PROMOTE THE RETURNED MIGRANTS TO WORK IN RURAL AREA IN CHINA——Evidence from China Labor-force Dynamic Survey(CLDS)

Internet technology promotes the rapid development of fintech, which reduces financing constraints and entrepreneurial costs, promotes entrepreneurship and employment of the returned migrants and helps realize the Rural Revitalization Strategy in China Using theoretical model and empirical analysis, the paper focuses on the impact of fintech on returned migrants' job decisions Using the Index of Digital Financial Inclusion and the data from China Labor force Dynamic Survey (CLDS) and using the Logit model and instrument variable to deal with endogenous problems, the empirical results show that: a one standard deviation increase in fintech significantly improves the probability of non agricultural employment of returned migrants by 0062~021 units, and reduces the probability of their agricultural employment by 0071~022 units Fintech can reduce the cost of financing and entrepreneurship, and attract returned migrants to carry out opportunity pull entrepreneurship in rural areas, so as to create jobs and promote migrants' income In contrast, fintech has no significant impact on entrepreneurship and income of rural urban migrants Heterogeneity analysis shows that fintech can significantly promote the returned migrants with low physical capital and low human capital to carry out opportunity pull entrepreneurship, and has stronger universality for the returned migrants with high physical capital These findings have important policy implications and provide evidence for stabilizing employment, promoting information technology in rural area and the realization of Rural Revitalization Strategy