重构企业R＆D项目战略投资决策方法体系

传统的投资决策方法是一种建立在广泛应用的以货币的时间价值为基础的投资决策方法,它已越来越不能适应当今充满不确定性和竞争性的市场需要.实物期权方法比传统的折现现金流法（DCF）更适合来分析不确定条件下的投资决策问题,但仅凭实物期权方法还不能对不完全竞争环境下的企业R＆D项目战略投资问题进行准确分析和估价,而引入期权博弈理论恰好能克服这些缺陷.文章从理论上阐述了重构企业R＆D项目投资决策方法体系的可能性和必要性,并由此提出了研究的基本框架.

Reconstructing a methodological system of decision-making for the firms' R&D projects strategic investment

The traditional method of investment decision-making, widely founded on the basis of the time value of currency, can hardly meet the needs of today's markets characterized by uncertainties and competition. The real options approach is more suitable to analyze the problems of investment decisions under uncertainty than the traditional discounted cash flow approach (DCF) does. However, the firms' R&D items strategic investments under the imperfect competition surrounding can't be analyzed and evaluated accurately only by the real option approach. The application of the theory of real option and game can exactly solve the problems. This paper, then, illustrates the feasibility and necessity of reconstructing the methodological system of decision-making for the firm' R&D items investment from theoretical perspectives, thereby putting forward the framework of the research.