我国货币乘数稳定性实证研究

货币乘数稳定性是中央银行必须时刻关注的一个重要问题。在货币乘数理论的框架下,可以有两种方式理解法定存款准备金率变化对货币存量的影响:一种是法定存款准备金率的变化会引起货币乘数的上升或下降,从而导致货币存量的变化;另一种是把变动法定存款准备金率的效果理解为基础货币变动,而不影响货币乘数。本文通过调整基础货币,剔除央行主动调整法定存款准备金率对货币乘数的影响后,对我国货币乘数的稳定性进行了实证研究。

Empirical Study on Money Multiplier Stability in China

The money multiplier stability is an important issue which the Central Bank must always pay close attention to. Under the framework of money multiplier theory,there are two ways to understand the impact of compulsory reserve requirement ratio(CRRR)variation on the money stock.One is that the change of CRRR may trigger the rise or drop of money multiplier, thus leading to the change of the money stock.The other is to treat the effect of CRRR variation as the change of money base only,while leaving money multiplier unchanged.This paper conducts empirical study on money multiplier stability in China after adjusting the money base and eliminating the impact on money multiplier caused by Central Bank' s active adjustment of CRRR.