汇率对粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的影响研究

汇率是影响粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的一个重要因素.基于粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的数量、效率、效益及竞争力4个方面,通过选取粮食库存量、土地产出率、成本利润率及生产者价格指数4个变量指标及1994—2018年、1994—2013年两个样本区间的年度数据,分别建立汇率与4个变量指标的向量自回归(V A R)模型,分析汇率波动对粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的影响.结果显示:汇率波动对粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的4个变量指标具有一定的冲击作用,且冲击主要集中在短中期;从整体来看,随着粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的持续推进,汇率波动对粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的解释能力有所增强.为降低汇率波动对粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的不利影响、推动粮食产业供给侧结构性改革的发展,提出如下建议:深入推进改革开放,释放经济活力;通过政策引导稳定汇率;提高涉粮企业汇率风险抵御能力;增加粮食有效供给,提高中国粮食产业竞争力.

Reseach on the Impact of Exchange Rate on the Supply-side Structural Reform of Grain Industry

Exchange rate is an important factor that affects the supply-side structural reform of the grain industry. Based on the quantity, efficiency, efficiency and competitiveness of the grain-side supply-side structural reform, this paper selects four indicators: the grain inventory, land output rate, cost-profit rate and PPI to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the structural reform of the supply-side of the grain industry, which have certain practical significance. Using the annual data of the two sample intervals from 1994 to 2018 and 1994 to 2013, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model are established in those four aspects to analyse the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the structural reform of the supply-side of the grain industry. The results show that: Firstly, exchange rate fluctuations have a certain impact on the four indicators of the supply-side structural reform of the grain industry, and the impact is mainly concentrated in the short and medium term; Secondly, from an overall perspective, with the supply-side structural reform of the grain industry, the continued advancement of the exchange rate has enhanced the ability to explain the supply-side structural reforms of the grain industry. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the supply-side structural reforms of the grain industry and promote the development of the grain-side supply-side structural reforms, this article proposes the following suggestions: deepening reform and opening up, release economic vitality; stabilize exchange rates through policy guidance; increase The ability to resist exchange rate risks of grain-related enterprises; increase the effective supply of grain and improve the competitiveness of China''s grain industry.