中国能源需求向量自回归模型的建立与分析

随着我国经济的快速发展，对能源需求日益增加，在未来一段时期内，如何科学地预测我国能源需求量，对于保证经济的可持续发展、小康社会目标的实现与和谐社会的构建具有重要的现实意义。向量自回归模型是基于数据的统计性质建立模型，把系统中每一个内生变量作为系统中所有内生变量的滞后值的函数来构造模型，是处理多个相关经济指标的分析和预测最容易操作的模型之一，常用于预测相互联系的时间序列系统。能源需求量是由煤炭、石油、天然气等一次能源的消费量组成，他们之间存在着密切的联系，基于此，应用VAR模型对我国中长期的能源需求总量、煤炭、石油、天然气的消费量进行预测，为科学地制定能源发展战略提供理论指导。

Establishment and Analysis of Vector Autoregression Model of Energy Demand in China

With the fast economic development,energy demand is increasing year after year.In the future,howto forecast the energy demand scientificaly has the important meaning to the assurance of economic sustainable development and the setting up of well-off and harmonious soci-ety.The VAR model sets up the model based on the data statistic character and as each endogenous variable is the fuction of lag value of all en-dogenous variables.It is one of the models that are easily handled to the analysis and forecast de...