兰州市土地利用变化驱动因素分析与预测

在RS与GIS支持下,建立了兰州市1995年、2000年土地利用变化数据库;结合1985年和1990年土地利用调查数据,采用因子分析模型对引起兰州市土地利用变化的驱动因素进行了分析;运用Markov与GM(1,1)两种预测方法对研究区未来的土地利用变化趋势进行了预测;两种预测方法的预测结果吻合度较高,研究区土地利用变化的总趋势为耕地、未利用土地持续减少;林地、城镇工矿居民地面积持续增加;草地面积也有明显的减少;水域相对较稳定。

Driving forces and prediction analysis of land use change in Lanzhou

With RS and GIS technology,the land use database of Lanzhou in 1995 and 2000 are established.Combined with the statistic data of 1985 and 1990,we analyze the driving factors of land use change on the basis of factor analysis.Moreover,two prediction models,which are Markov and GM(1,1),are applied to predict land use change trend in the future.The results show that coincidence degree between Markov model and GM(1,1) is high.The general tendency of land use change represents that the cultivated land and barren land will decrease and forest land and urban land will rise persistently.But grassland shortened sharply and water area will be level-off in the future.