| 基于现金流量的上市公司财务危机预警研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张晋峰,张爱香.基于现金流量的上市公司财务危机预警研究[J].山东纺织经济,2011(8):16-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张晋峰 张爱香 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安工程大学 陕西西安 710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以2010年沪深股市124家ST和非ST公司为样本,建立基于现金流量的财务指标体系,运用统计方法筛选指标,然后构建Logistic回归财务危机预警模型。研究结果表明:模型预测准确率达到了83.9%,其中上市公司的自由现金流和股权现金流对财务危机的预测影响很大。
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| 关 键 词： | Logistic回归 现金流量 财务危机 |
The Research of Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Forewarning Based on Cash Flow |
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| Zhang Jinfeng,Zhang Aixiang.The Research of Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Forewarning Based on Cash Flow[J].Economy of Shangdong Textile,2011(8):16-18. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Jinfeng Zhang Aixiang |
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| Institution: | (Xi＇an Polytechnic University,Xi＇an 710048,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper selects ST companies and normal companies in the year of 2010 as samples and indexes by static analysis method.After that,the paper establishes financial crisis warning model using the approach of Logistic.The result shows that warning model based on cash flow can predict the financial crisis to 83.9% correctly one year prior to distress.Among them,free cash flow and equity cash flow greatly influence on the prediction of listed companies＇financial crisis. |
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| Keywords: | Logistic regression cash flow financial crisis |
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