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A linear demand system within a seemingly unrelated time series equations framework
Authors:Arvid Raknerud  Terje Skjerpen  Anders Rygh Swensen
Institution:(1) Research Department, Statistics Norway, P.O. Box 8131 Dep, 0033 Oslo, Norway;(2) Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1053, 0316 Blindern, Oslo, Norway
Abstract:A seemingly unrelated time series equations framework for the linear almost ideal (AID) demand system is considered. The framework is applied to a consumer demand system covering nine non-durable commodities. Within a specification where the static linear AID system is augmented by latent variables representing stochastic trends and seasonality, demand homogeneity is tested; both in each equation and in the system as a whole. Income and own-price elasticities are calculated under homogeneity restrictions. Although the homogeneous model is formally rejected by statistical tests, it performs well with respect to interpretability, parameter stability and forecasting.
Keywords:Consumer demand  Almost ideal demand system  Seemingly unrelated time series equations  Out-of-sample performance
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