PHEIC对中国的经济影响及对策

2020年1月31日,世界卫生组织宣布将中国新冠病毒疫情列为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件(PHEIC)。尽管在之前的PHEIC中,世界卫生组织均强调不应限制国际旅行和贸易,但各国仍对目标国采取了一系列限制措施,对其经济造成负面影响。此次PHEIC后,越来越多的国家对我国采取了广泛的限制措施。对中国造成的短期影响是国内经济、国际贸易、双向投资、全球价值链均受到冲击;中期影响是外商撤资、产业链转移的可能性大幅增加;长期影响是面临与全球经济脱钩的风险。对此,我国应借鉴之前目标国采取应对措施的经验教训,尽快结束疫情、缓解对国内经济的冲击、推动国际贸易和双向投资、加快产业链布局调整、加强国际经济合作,以缓解PHEIC的短期冲击并避免中长期影响。

Economic Impact of PHEIC on China and the Countermeasures

On January 31, 2020 Beijing time, the World Health Organization(WHO) declared a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC) over the global outbreak of novel coronavirus in China. Although in previous PHEIC incidents, WHO emphasized that international travel and trade should not be restricted, countries adopted a series of restrictive measures on target countries, which had a negative impact on their economy. After the announcement of PHEIC, a growing number of countries have imposed extensive restrictions on China, which is harmful to the economy. In the short term, China’s domestic economy, international trade, two-way international investment and global value chain are all impacted. In the medium term, the possibility of foreign investment withdrawal and industrial chain transfer increases significantly in China. In the long run, China faces the risk of decoupling from the global economy. In this regard, China should learn from the experience and lessons of response measures taken by previous target countries, end the epidemic as soon as possible, mitigate the impact on the domestic economy, promote international trade and two-way investment, accelerate the adjustment of industrial chain layout, and strengthen international economic cooperation, so as to alleviate the short-term impact and avoid the mid-and long-term impacts of PHEIC.