中美贸易摩擦对两岸经贸关系的影响

长期以来,"台湾接单-大陆生产-出口美欧"这一典型的三角贸易模式是两岸经贸合作的主要形式。经过多年的发展,两岸之间已经形成了密切的经贸联系。然而,在中美贸易摩擦持续发酵的背景下,尤其是在台湾当局"去中国化"经贸政策的影响下,两岸经贸合作面临的不确定性和困难有所增加。为规避中美贸易摩擦的消极影响,两岸经贸合作态势也出现相应调整。一是两岸贸易出现了明显的替代和转移效应;二是部分台商加快调整全球产业布局;三是两岸高科技产业合作步伐放缓。鉴于中美贸易摩擦前景尚不明朗,对两岸经贸关系的影响也值得持续关注。

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations

For a long time,the classic triangular trade model,which is "taking orders in Chinese Taiwan,organizing production in China's Mainland and then exporting to Europe and the US", has been the main form of cross-strait economic cooperation.After years of development, Chinese Taiwan and China's Mainland have developed close economic and trade relationship.However, under the background of continually simmering Sino-US trade friction,especially under the influence of the Chinese Taiwan authorities’ policy of "desinification",cross-strait economic cooperation has been confronted with more uncertainties and difficulties.Corresponding adjustments are showing up in the field of economic cooperation so as to counteract the negative effect of the ongoing Sino-US trade friction.Firstly, substitution and diversion effect have emerged in cross-strait trade development. Secondly,some Chinese Taiwan-invested enterprise started to accelerate the adjustment of global industry layout.Thirdly, high-tech industry cooperations are slowing down as well.Given that the prospect of Sino-US trade friction is still unclear, its impact on cross-strait economic and trade relations is worthy of sustained attention.