| 基于情景演变的铁路运输非常规突发事件应急策略研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘娇娇,何世伟,黎浩东. 基于情景演变的铁路运输非常规突发事件应急策略研究[J]. 物流技术, 2011, 0(7): 16-18,48 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘娇娇 何世伟 黎浩东 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了基于"情景-应急"对策的模型,利用事故树分析与最小割集法,得出铁路运输针对不同非常规突发事件发生的预测方法,并对情景演变的结果进行了分层次、分线路情景的分析,最后提供应急预案的制定与选取方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路运输 情景分析 事故树 突发事件 |
Rail Transport Unconventional Contingency Response Strategy Based on Scenario Evolution |
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| LIU Jiao-jiao,HE Shi-wei,LI Hao-dong. Rail Transport Unconventional Contingency Response Strategy Based on Scenario Evolution[J]. Logistics Technology, 2011, 0(7): 16-18,48 |
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| Authors: | LIU Jiao-jiao HE Shi-wei LI Hao-dong |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Jiao-jiao,HE Shi-wei,LI Hao-dong(School of Traffic & Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper establishes a scenario evolution based strategy model,uses failure tree analysis and minimal cut set method to determine the forecasting approach for the unconventional contingencies in railway transportation,analyzes the results of scenario evolution on different evolving tiers and paths,and at the end proposes the preparation and seletion method of emergency preplans. |
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| Keywords: | railway transportation scenario analysis failure tree contingency |
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