对中国通货膨胀的实证研究——从一般到特殊的建模方法

本文采用从一般到特殊的建模方法,利用PcGets软件,实证考察了1994~2009年中国通货膨胀与货币供应、产出缺口、汇率和国际原油价格之间的联系。研究表明,通货膨胀和货币供应之间存在长期稳定的正相关关系,但通货膨胀并不完全是货币现象。除货币供应外,还有其他更多重要变量共同决定通货膨胀的变化。产出缺口与通货膨胀之间存在显著关系,因而不能忽视汇率因素对通货膨胀的影响等。

Empirical Studies on China's Inflation

This paper studies the relationship among inflation,money supply,output gap,exchange rate and crude oil price in China,using General to Specific Method and PcGets software.The result shows there is a long-term stable positive correlation between inflation and money supply,but inflation is not an entirely monetary phenomenon.There are some more important variables that determine inflation changes besides money supply.Also,there is significant relationship between output gap and inflation,therefore,we can't i...