中国货币条件指数构建及与经济增长的实证分析

货币条件指数作为反映一个国家货币政策松紧程度的指标,自1994年由加拿大银行首次提出后,引起了国际社会的普遍关注。本文选取1998年1季度～2011年3季度间共55个季度的实际利率、实际有效汇率、实际信贷规模缺口作为解释变量,选取实际产出与潜在产出之间的缺口作为被解释变量,使用单方程估计法,通过构造总需求曲线,利用最小二乘法计算各解释变量的权重,得出中国的实际货币条件指数。并通过分析对比中国汇率、利率、信贷规模变动与宏观经济增长之间的关系,验证中国实际货币条件指数对实体经济变动的解释能力。

The Construction of China Monetary Condition Index and Empirical Analysis of Economic Growth

Monetary Conditions Index,as a reflection of the degree of tightness of a country’s monetary policy,was put forward by the Bank of Canada in 1994,arose the widespread attention of international society.From the first quarter of 1998 to third quarter 2011 among a total of 55 quarters,this paper selects real interest rates,the real effective exchange rate and the actual credit scale gap as explanatory variables,selects the gap between actual output and potential output as explanatory variables,uses a single equation estimation method,constructs the aggregate demand curve,uses the least square method to calculate the explanatory variable weight,studies Chinese actual monetary condition index.Through the analysis and comparison of China’s exchange rate,interest rate,credit scale changes and macro economic growth relationship, the paper validates Chinese actual monetary condition index’s explanation on the entity economic fluctuant.