旅游经济增长因素的空间计量研究

文章在文献分析的基础上,构建了旅游经济增长影响因素的空间计量模型,并运用2000—2009年大陆31个省、市、自治区的数据进行实证研究。结果表明：在考虑空间效应的影响下,我国旅游经济增长具有空间依赖性,其中2000—2008年出现正的空间溢出效应,2009年出现负的空间溢出效应;旅游业发达省份旅游经济增长速度低于欠发达省份,低增长和高增长省份在空间上聚集。旅游接待设施数量的增加、居民消费水平的提高对旅游经济增长具有显著的促进作用;旅游景区数量的增长对旅游经济的增长作用不显著;而交通里程的增长对旅游经济的增长具有反向作用。

A Spatial Econometric Analysis on the Factors of Tourism Economic Growth

Based on the China’s 31 provinces data,this paper constructed a spatial econometric model for the factors of tourism economy growth.The results show that there is a spatial dependence among the provinces in China.There is a positive spillover effect from 2000 to 2008 while a negative effect in 2009.Tourism developed provinces tourism economic growth rate is lower than the less developed provinces,then the low-growth and high-growth provinces gathered in space.The growth of tourist reception facilities and the level of consumption growth plan a significant promoting role on the tourism economy;tourist attractions has a weak effect;traffic growth has a reverse effect.