空间外部性视角下的地方政府支出策略互动模式

运用空间面板计量方法研究了分税制改革以来中国地方政府支出的策略互动模式。结果表明，基本建设、文教科卫和预算外支出具有显著的空间自相关性，表现出策略互补，行政管理支出则由于地方财力情况的差异形成策略替代，效益外溢性、财政竞争机制和标尺效应在其中交替发挥了主导作用。财政收支分权对支出策略互动模式的影响效果并不一致，扩张支出分权将加剧以基建支出为主的地方政府竞争。财政分权的改革方向是使地方政府在一定程度上拥有收入自主权，中央适当上收具有强烈区域外溢性的公共品供给责任，降低地方非正式收支自主权，从制度层面营造地区间协调有序的竞争关系。

Research on Strategic Interaction Pattern of Local Government Expenditure from the Perspective of Spatial Externality

This paper analyses the strategic interaction pattern of Chinese local government expenditure since Revenue-Sharing Reform by Spatial Econometrics of Panel Data.The empirical results indicate that there are obvious spatial autocorrelation and strategic complementary among expenditures on infrastructure,culture,education,technology and health,and extra-budgetary.While expenditure pattern on administration is strategic substitution due to different local revenue situations,which is driven by spillover effect,fiscal competition mechanism and yardstick effect in turn.The fiscal decentralization of revenue and expenditure affect strategic pattern of local expenditure inconsistently.Expansion of expenditure decentralization will increase local government competition,especially infrastructure competition.It is important that local governments have revenue autonomy,and central government takes back provision duty of public goods which have strong regional externalities.Local informal revenue and expenditure autonomy should be reduced so as to create coordinated inter-regional competition relationship from institutional perspective.