黄河流域雾霾污染空间溢出效应与影响因素

基于1998-2016年黄河流域地级市雾霾污染空间动态面板模型,在考虑雾霾污染时空滞后效应条件下采用系统广义矩估计(SGMM)方法,分析了影响黄河流域雾霾污染的社会经济因素及其区域差异。结果表明:黄河流域雾霾污染呈现明显的正向空间溢出效应和高值集聚特征,高排放俱乐部稳定地分布于黄河下游城市;黄河全流域PM2.5浓度与经济增长呈现正"U"型关系,低效率的能源使用、低水平的人口集聚、粗放式的经济发展方式是导致黄河流域雾霾污染加剧的主要原因;黄河流域雾霾污染背后的社会经济影响机制存在显著的区域差异,低效率的能源利用以及偏向于生产技术提升的研发投入导致了黄河上游流域雾霾的加重,而城镇化和工业化进程则主导了黄河中游流域雾霾污染的加剧,在黄河下游城市仅有能源消费对雾霾污染起到显著的正向作用。基于此,文章认为建立区域协同联防治霾机制、实施差异化分区治理策略、实现全流域的高质量发展是黄河流域雾霾治理的重要策略。

Spatial Spillover Effect and Influencing Factors of Haze Pollution in the Yellow River Basin

Based on the spatial dynamic panel model of haze pollution in the prefecture level cities of the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to 2016,this paper analyzes the socio-economic factors and regional differences of haze pollution in the Yellow River Basin by using SGMM method under the condition of considering the time-space lag effect of haze pollution.The results show that:the haze pollution in the Yellow River Basin presents obvious positive spatial spillover effect and high value concentration characteristics,and the high emission clubs are stably distributed in the cities in the lower reaches of the Yellow River;the PM2.5 concentration and economic growth in the whole Yellow River Basin show a positive"U"relationship,and the low-efficiency energy use,low-level population concentration and extensive economic development mode lead to the haze pollution in the Yellow River Basin The main reason for the haze pollution is that there are significant regional differences in the socio-economic impact mechanism behind the haze pollution in the Yellow River Basin.Low efficiency energy utilization and R&D investment in favor of production technology promotion lead to the aggravation of the haze in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin,while the Urbanization and industrialization process lead to the aggravation of the haze pollution in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin.In the lower reaches of the Yellow River,only energy consumption is found it has a significant positive effect on haze pollution.Based on the analysis above,this paper considers that it is an important strategy for the Yellow River haze control to establish a regional collaborative prevention and control mechanism,implement the differentiated regional governance strategy,and achieve the high-quality development of the whole basin.