南京都市区就业空间结构演变

就业空间结构是解读城市空间结构的重要维度。基于第二次基本单位普查、第二次与第三次经济普查数据,采用贝叶斯克里金地统计、空间自相关、非参数局部加权回归和二项Logistic回归分析等方法探索南京都市区就业空间格局演化特征及就业中心形成的影响因素,研究发现:①2001—2013年,就业机会持续从都市区核心向郊区扩散,但接近半数的就业岗位仍然集中在各个就业中心,就业密度全局莫兰指数(总体集聚程度)变大(增强),"分散中的集聚"是南京都市区就业地理格局的主要特征。②制造业主导型中心始终是就业次中心的重要组成部分,而2008—2013年服务业主导型次中心的显著增多以及主中心的崛起预示着服务经济塑造就业中心的力量愈发突显。③就业次中心更倾向于出现在中心城区内的新城与副城极核、建成环境特别是公共交通可达性优良且产业/经济基础较好的地点。

Evolution of Employment Spatial Structure in Nanjing Metropolitan Area

Employment space is a significant dimension of urban spatial structure.Based on the second basic units census,the second and third economic census data,this paper employs Empirical Bayesian Kriging,Spatial Autocorrelation,Locally Weighted Nonparametric Regression and Binary Logistics Regression to examine the evolution characteristics of the employment spatial pattern and the influencing factors of the formation of employment centers in Nanjing metropolitan area.The results show that:first,from 2001 to 2013,employment opportunities continued to spread out from the metropolitan core area to the suburbs,however,nearly half of jobs were still concentrated in the identified employment centers with an increasing Global Moran’s I index of the employment density,indicating that"decentralized concentration"is the main feature of employment geography of Nanjing metropolitan area.Second,Manufacturing-dominated subcenters have been the important part of employment centers,while the significant increase of service-dominated subcenters and the rise of main center in 2008-2013 demonstrate that a strengthening power of service economy in shaping employment centers.And finally,employment sub-centers are more likely to be located in the new towns and vice-cities within the central Metropolitan area,also the sites characterized with nice built environment such as high accessibility and good industrial/economic foundation.The current analysis would provide reference for employment sub-centers cultivation and relative policy making of Nanjing Metropolitan area.