| 缺水型城市水资源供需匹配的模拟和预测——以甘肃省兰州市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王旻,尹少华,卢丽帆. 缺水型城市水资源供需匹配的模拟和预测——以甘肃省兰州市为例[J]. 经济地理, 2020, 40(2): 89-96 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王旻 尹少华 卢丽帆 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南林业科技大学 商学院,中国湖南 长沙410004;兰州财经大学 信息工程学院,中国甘肃 兰州730101;中南林业科技大学 商学院,中国湖南 长沙410004;湖南工商大学 经济与贸易学院,中国湖南 长沙410205 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究项目;湖南省教育厅科学研究项目;湖南省社会科学基金青年项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 兰州属于严重缺水的西北城市,年均降雨量偏少,地表水资源贫乏,水资源供需矛盾不断加剧。文章采用线性和非线性方程形式对兰州市农业、工业、生态和城乡生活用水需求进行模拟和预测,并在不同的水资源供给方案下得到未来时期内兰州市及各区县的时空匹配缺水量。结果显示:未来兰州市水资源短缺问题较为严重,可预测的缺水量最小值为4.605亿m3/a,缺水量最大值为15.448亿m3/a。在未来需水量预测中,农业和生态用水需求呈现为不断上升趋势,工业用水需求呈现为"U"型趋势,城乡生活用水需求呈现为倒"U"型趋势。并且,各区县的水资源空间匹配失衡状况较为严重。
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| 关 键 词： | 缺水型城市 水资源 供需匹配 节水型社会 模拟和预测 用水需求 优化配量 |
Simulation and Prediction of Water Supply and Demand Matching in Water-Deficient Cities:A Case Study of Lanzhou City of Gansu Province |
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| WANG Min,YIN Shaohua,LU Lifan. Simulation and Prediction of Water Supply and Demand Matching in Water-Deficient Cities:A Case Study of Lanzhou City of Gansu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(2): 89-96 |
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| Authors: | WANG Min YIN Shaohua LU Lifan |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Business,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;School of Information Engineering,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730101,Gansu,China;College of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,Hunan,China) |
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| Abstract: | Lanzhou is a city in northwest China with severe water shortage,where is less annual rainfall in average and scarce water resource on surface.In this paper,linear and nonlinear equations are used to simulate and predict the demand for water in Lanzhou city,including agriculture,industry,ecological,urban and rural life,and then obtains the spatialtemporal matching water shortage of Lanzhou city,every district and county in the future under the different water supply schemes.The results show that the shortage of water resources in Lanzhou will be more serious in the future.The predicted minimum and maximum water shortages will be 0.4605 billion cubic meters per year and 1.5448 billion cubic meters per year respectively.In the forecast of future water demand,agricultural and ecological water demand presents a rising trend,industrial water demand presents a U-shaped trend,and urban and rural domestic water demand presents an inverted U-shaped trend.Moreover,the unbalance of water resources spatial matching in each district and county is serious. |
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| Keywords: | water-deficient city water resources supply and demand matching water conservation society simulation and prediction water demand optimal configuration |
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