报酬递增与经济波动的微观机制——理论框架与中国经验

本文通过引入报酬递增和市场饱和点,采用D-S模型方法,分析技术冲击引起经济波动的微观机制,回答了真实经济周期理论无法解释技术倒退的困境,通过缩短技术和产品创新周期可以有效降低经济波动的幅度。笔者的分析表明:技术冲击和市场饱和点引起的需求约束,有助于理解耐用品消费和产业结构升级引起的中国近三十年经济波动。

Increasing Returns and Economic Fluctuations in the Micro -Mechanism: Theory of Framework and Practice in China

This paper through the introduction of increasing returns and the market saturation point,the D-S model,analysis of the micro-mechanism of economic fluctuation caused by technology shocks,to answer the real business cycle theory can not explain the existence of the plight technical backward,technologies and products by shortening innovation cycle can effectively reduce the magnitude of economic fluctuations.The analysis shows that technology shocks and market demand caused by saturation point constraints,co...