A simultaneous disequilibrium model for Italian export goods

An econometric methodology is proposed for simultaneously estimating a disequilibrium macroeconomic model which takes into account the interactions occurring between variables or equations when aggregate quantities come from markets which do not clear. A specification of disequilibrium is considered which is substantially a simultaneous version of the well known partial adjustment model, instead of taking into account the conventional “short-side” rule. A simple model for italian manufactured export goods is estimated with limited and full information techniques subject to cross equation restrictions which permit the identification of the structural parameters of the model. By investigating the extent to which these restrictions are supported by evidence, this approach is shown to be useful for the comprehension of how the italian export market for manufactured goods operates. Tests on equilibrium versus disequilibrium hypothesis seem to support such a specification for macro-disequilibrium.