“一带一路”框架下的中拉绿色产品贸易:特征、比较优势与出口潜力

在“双循环”背景下,加强“一带一路”建设对中国深化对外开放意义重大,促进中拉绿色贸易符合双方利益,可为“一带一路”延伸至拉美创造新的合作增长点。本文使用2002年至2018年的货物贸易数据,分析了中拉共建“一带一路”过程中中拉绿色产品贸易的特征和趋势,并重点研究了中国绿色产品对拉美的出口潜力。通过使用双边显示性比较优势指数和出口潜力矩阵,文章发现,在现有的中拉货物贸易结构中,绿色产品贸易所占比重较低,贸易对象高度集中,但随着双方经贸合作的全面深化、特别是“一带一路”延伸至拉美,双边绿色产品贸易金额和种类都在稳定上升。尽管中国绿色产品在拉美市场面临着地理距离遥远、市场竞争激烈等客观困难,但中国的优势产品已成功出口到拉美。中国的出口潜力更多地取决于拉美地区的市场需求,一旦拉美对绿色产品的需求提升,那么中国就具备进一步扩大向拉美出口该类产品的潜力。此外,出口潜力矩阵也找出了部分对拉美市场而言具备不可替代性的中国产品,这也将成为中国潜在的对拉出口重点绿色产品。

Trade in Green Products between China and LAC under the Belt and Road Initiative: Characteristics,Comparative Advantage and Export Potentials

In the context of the"Dual Circulation",strengthening the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative is of great significance for China to deepen its Opening-up policy.Promoting green trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean is in the interest of both parties and will create new growth opportunities for cooperation in extending the Belt and Road to LAC.This paper uses trade data from 2002 to 2018 to discuss the characteristics and trends of trade in green products between China and LAC under the Belt and Road Initiative collaboration,and focuses on the export potential of China's green products to Latin America.By using the Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage indicator and Export Potentials Matrix in the empirical analysis,the paper shows that trade in green products accounts for a relatively low proportion in the China-LAC trade in goods structures and the trading partners are highly concentrated.However,a more in-depth China-LAC economic and trade cooperation,especially the extension of the Belt and Road to Latin America,makes bilateral trade in green products increase steadily not only in trade values,but also in trade variety.Even though Chinese green products in the Latin American market face difficulties such as long geographic distance and fierce competition,the products successfully exported to Latin America are China's advantageous products,and China's export potentials depend more on the market demand in Latin America.Once the demand for green products in Latin America increases,China will certainly have the potential to further expand exports of green products to LAC.Furthermore,the Export Potentials Matrix identifies some Chinese products that are irreplaceable in the Latin American market and could be potential priority exports to Latin America.