| 生产分割、周期协同与主要贸易伙伴的关联:1995～2008年 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓军,王丽娟.生产分割、周期协同与主要贸易伙伴的关联:1995～2008年[J].改革,2012(7):96-103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓军 王丽娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西财经大学国际经贸学院;江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西财经大学校级课题“国际生产分割视角下的国际经济周期协同研究”(批准号:05572015)、江西财经大学校级课题“政府间土地优惠竞争关系研究”(批准号:05572022) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国与17个主要贸易伙伴国1995～2008年的投入产出表和分行业双边进出口贸易数据,测算不同时期的双边生产分割程度。然后基于动态面板数据模型,综合分析了影响国际经济周期协同的决定性因素。研究发现,贸易在影响中国与主要贸易伙伴国的国际经济周期协同中存在两种不同方向的作用机制:以双边生产分割程度度量的互补品贸易对经济周期协同存在正向影响,而以双边贸易强度指标度量的替代品贸易对经济周期协同存在负向影响。同时研究还表明,双边金融整合程度对国际经济周期协同有正向影响,而产业结构相似性对国际经济周期协同的影响并不显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 国际生产分割 国际经济周期 贸易伙伴 |
The Relevancy among Production Fragmentation,Economic Cycle Coordination and Major Trading Partners:from 1995 to 2008 |
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| Deng Jun Wang Lijuan.The Relevancy among Production Fragmentation,Economic Cycle Coordination and Major Trading Partners:from 1995 to 2008[J].Reform,2012(7):96-103. |
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| Authors: | Deng Jun Wang Lijuan |
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| Institution: | Deng Jun Wang Lijuan |
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| Abstract: | The authors measure the extent of bilateral production fragmentation in different times by using the input-out tables and the bilateral import-export data of different industries in China and its 17 major trade partners in the year of 1995 to 2008.Then based on dynamic panel data model,the authors analyze the deciding factors influencing international economic cycle coordination.The research shows that trade has two opposite affection to China and its trade partners in international economic cycle coordination.The influence of Complements trade is positive in economic coordination measured by the index of bilateral production fragmentation,while the influence of substitute trade is negative measured by bilateral trading strength index.Besides,bilateral financial integration level has positive influence to international economic cycle coordination,while the industrial structure is not obvious. |
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| Keywords: | international production fragmentation international economic cycle trade partners |
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