山西省能源消费碳排放变化的因素分析

文章基于扩展的Kaya恒等式,应用对数平均权重Divisia分解法对山西省1997～2008年的能源消费碳排放进行了分解分析。结果表明:产出规模效应对山西省该阶段能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大,达到53.14%,其次是能源强度效应为37.1%,紧随其后的依次是,产业结构效应为11.39%,人口规模效应为0.1%,能源结构效应为-1.5%。因此,目前山西省节能减排的重点在于提高能源效率,建立战略性新兴产业以及发展旅游业。

Analysis on Factors of Carbon Emission Variation for Energy Consumption in Shanxi Province

Base on the expansion Kaya identical formula,the logarithmic mean weight Divisia resolution was applied to the resolution and analysis on the carbon emission of the energy consumption from 1997～2008 in Shanxi Province. The results showed that the output scale effect had a max contribution rate to the carbon emission of the energy during the stage in Shanxi Province and was reached at 53.14 %. Secondary the energy intensity effect was 37.1 %,the industrial structure effect was 11.39 %,the population scale effect was 0. 1% and the energy structure effect was-1.5 %. Therefore the key of the energy saving and emission reduction in Shanxi Province is to improve the energy efficiency,to establish a strategic new industry and to develop the tourist industry.