Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

In March 1997 the European Commission adopted aproposal that increases existing minimum levels oftaxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% andintroduces excises for other energy products. Thispaper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of theproposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, andE3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will havepositive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenuesare used to reduce social security contributions paidby employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP andemployment are expected to be higher and CO₂emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positiveEU-wide effects can be observed in practically allmember states. The sector impacts are modest, with theenergy sector expected to face the most negativeimpacts. Differences between model results are due tothe model type (general equilibrium ormacro-econometric), the EU countries covered and theway tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptionsto obtain the ``double dividend' are the modelling ofthe labour market and the impacts on EU externaltrade. The sensitivity of the results for the use oftax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases isassessed.