基于结构约束的旅游业增长研究

经济结构与经济增长相互影响,特定的经济结构决定一定的增长空间,相反,一定的积累组合也会影响未来结构的形成。现实中,利用部门之间的关联关系,以旅游业的积累和增长来影响社会其他经济部门的积累和增长,从而实现经济的协调发展,是一种可行的管理方法。文章通过构建一个新的部门关联模型,研究旅游业在一定结构约束下与其他部门之间的积累与增长的相互关系,并据此对利用旅游业来推动经济发展提出一些建议。

Research on the Growth of Tourism under Constraints of Structures

The structure of an economy and economic growth influence each other, with specific economic structures determining certain sectors of economic growth. Correspondingly, accumulations of capital in certain sectors can affect the formation of economic structure. The general departments associated model developed in this article shows a relationship between capital accumulation in various economic departments and growth. This specific correlation is demonstrated by examining the accumulation of all departments; the accumulation rate of n- 1 department is the function of the accumulation rate of a certain sector acting as a free variable. The correlation revealed by the general departments associated model suggests that both government and market forces can be used （by focusing on the large issues and discounting the small） to manage social and economic growth. Hence, in the process of economic development, one department can be determined as the leading sector for development. It is possible to influence the accumulation and development level of the leading department by using different means, and further, to influence the social accumulation and development of other departments through the leading department. From the perspective of structure, there are no limits on choosing any one department as the leading department. Therefore, in a certain period, the government can choose tourism as the leading department and through its development can influence and promote the development of the economy as a whole. It is important to consider the following if choosing tourism to develop the overall economy：
（I） The level of accumulation and increase resulting from focusing on tourism development isrestricted by the current economic total amount and structure.
（2） The model suggests that from the point of view of structure there is no limit to choosing which department can be a leading department. Therefore, to choose the tourism industry as the leading industry and guiding the development of tourism to promote the development of a regional economy as a whole is feasible in theory. However, in reality, other factors must be considered before choosing the tourism industry as the leading department.
（3） When using tourism as a leading industry, its accumulation or development level is not arbitrary; only by guaranteeing the accumulation level of the tourism industry in a feasible range can comprehensive balance be possible. Hence, blindly increasing the accumulation and growth of the tourism sector could be harmful.
（4） When choosing tourism as the leading industry, the government has two basic means of influencing the accumulation or the development level： administrative and economic. There are side effects to using administrative means, and excessive use could inhibit the separation of government and enterprises. Therefore, the primary choice should be the use of economic means to indirectly influence the development of tourism, and thus influence the development of the economy as a whole.
（5） Theoretically, the rates of correlativity of tourism and other departments are uncertain. There can be both positive and negative correlations. The development of tourism is needed for other social departments to develop rapidly. However, there can be a negative relationship： over-development of tourism may lead to a relative slow-down in the development of other departments.
（6） To realize long-term reproduction, every consumption coefficient can be affected. So rather than modulating the total amount and structure of an economic system through various methods, coefficients can be modulated to affect the value realization process of the entire reproductive process.
（7） The model of associated departments may have no solution under certain economic conditions. Balanced social reproduction will not be realized when possible adjustment is ineffective. Then a balanced increase of social economy can be recovered only by crisis.