中国农民工发展趋势与展望

本文在对中国农民工群体的发展趋势以及影响农民工问题解决的选择性因素进行系统分析的基础上,构建了农民工城乡流动和人口城市沉淀模型,描绘了农民工的人口城市沉淀曲线,指出了解决农民工问题的历史过程和基本思路。本文的基本结论是:农民工问题是个战略问题,将伴随我国现代化的全过程,并将伴随现代化基本实现而终结。农民工亦工亦农、亦城亦乡,流动就业,逐步向非农产业和城市转移,这种现象将长期存在。解决农民工问题要持城乡统筹方略,实行工业反哺农业、城市支持农村的方针;要以体制改革和政策创新为动力,逐步消除城乡二元结构;要以人为本,公平对待,构建解决农民工问题的社会支持体系。

The Trend and Perspective of Rural Migrant Workers in China

Based on systematic analysis on the developing trend of Chinese rural migrant workers and selective factors that influence solving the problem concerning rural migrant workers,this paper has designed a model of migrant workers' flow between rural and urban areas,and population's settlement in cities,and then it describes a curve that indicates migrant workers' city settlement trend.Finally,the historical process and the basic method to solve the problem concerning rural migrant workers have been drawn.The conclusion of this paper is that the rural migrant worker problem is the attribute of the strategy so that it will accompany China's entire modernization process.Moreover,the problem will terminate correspondingly with the ending of modernization,which would happen around 2050 as an ending point.The rural migrant workers are engaged in both farming and non-farming jobs,sometimes staying in urban areas and sometimes staying in rural areas,in order to obtain mobile employment and gradually transfer into non-farming industry and urban areas.To solve the migrant workers problem,the strategy of overall and balanced development between urban and rural areas should be carried out and the policy that industry fosters agriculture's development in reverse and urban areas support to rural areas should be adhered to.Furthermore,with the motivation of institution reform and policy innovation,elimination of the urban-rural dual structure should be gradually strived for.The human-centeredness principle and fair treatment to both urban and rural population should be established.