我国大城市人口规模估算与调控路径选择

目前，人口大规模跨地区流动是我国大城市人口膨胀的主要推动因素。利用城市市辖区年末移动电话用户数估计中国地级以上城市的人口规模，结果表明市辖区人口规模在200万人以上的城市有62个；以北京奥运会、上海世博会和广州亚运会为例分析非市场手段调控人口规模的效果及其成本，结果表明以地方政府行政手段为主的城市人口规模调控短期内效果明显，但一旦放松调控，城市人口在短期内即迅速回复到其应有的状态；对日本的城市人口空间分布和增长演进进行分析，结果表明市场经济条件下区域经济发展的不平衡是导致人口在不同地区和城市流动的关键因素；对广东省各地级市人口演变进行估计分析，结果表明人口由珠三角核心城市流向外围城市主要是伴随着产业转移的人口回流。在市场经济框架下，不能主要以行政手段控制大城市人口增长，而应主要采用市场手段来调控城市人口结构，如产业升级与转移。

Population Size Estimation and Regulation Path for China’ s Big Cities

Under the situation of almost negative growth of registered household population, large scale trans-regional flow of Chinese population is the main driving factor of population expansion in large cities. Firstly, we use some rigid data such as the total number of urban mobile phone users at the end of a year to estimate the size of the population of the major cities above prefecture-level cities in China, the results show that there are sixty-two cities with over two million people in China. Secondly, we analyze the effect and the cost of population regulation by non-market means of population control by taking example of Beijing Olympic Games, Shanghai World Expo and Guangzhou Asian Games, the results indicate that the city population size regulation mainly by local governmental administrative means has significant effect in short-term, but once the regulation is easing, the city population rapidly returns to its original state in short-term. Thirdly, we explore the spatial distribution and growth evolution of Japanese urban population, the results reveal that the imbalance of regional economic development is the key factor to lead to the floating of the population among different cities and different regions. Finally, we conduct the estimation and analysis of the population evolution in the prefecture-level cities of Guangdong Province, the results demonstrate that population flowing from the core cities at Pearl River Delta to their surrounding cities is mainly the back-flow with the industrial transfer. Under market economy framework, administrative means should not be mainly used to regulate population growth in big cities, however, market-oriented means such as industrial upgrading and transfer should be used to control urban population structure.