| Global and Euro Imbalances： China and Germany |
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| 基金项目： | The authors thank Bat-el Berger, Lillie Lam, Marjorie Santos and Jimmy Shek for their excellent research assistance, and Morten Bailing, Stephen Cecchetti, Blaise Gadanecz, Hans Genberg, Ernest Gnan, Ulrich Grosch, Dong He, Liam Maxwell, Roberto Tedeschi and Haiwen Zhou for discussion. This paper is partly based on Chapter 2 in Morten Bailing and Ernest Gnan, editors, 50 Years of Money and Finance： Lessons and Challenges, Vienna and Brussels, Larcier for SUERF （www.suerf.org）. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank for International Settlements. The Bank for International Settlements retains the copyright to previous and future versions of this work, including the right to publish the paper in translation. |
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| 摘 要： | ![]()
We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.
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| 关 键 词： | 德国 中国 经济 失衡 欧洲 国际投资 债权人 早期阶段 |
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