风险认知、社会信任与农户宅基地退出意愿基于江苏省扬州市418户农户调查的数据

目的 研究风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响，以及社会信任在两者中的调节作用，探究风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿的作用机制，引导农户自愿有偿退出宅基地，提高农村土地资源利用效率，促进城乡融合发展具有重要现实意义。方法 文章基于江苏省扬州市418户农户调查数据，采用主成分分析测度风险认知和社会信任等变量，并运用Logit模型对提出的理论假说进行实证检验。结果 （1）实证结果表明，风险认知对农户宅基地退出意愿有负向影响，而社会信任则有正向影响。（2）具体来看，风险认知对高社会信任农户和低社会信任农户宅基地退出的意愿均有负向影响，社会信任能缓解风险认知对宅基地退出意愿的不利影响，人际信任和制度信任都有助于农户宅基地退出意愿的提升；区分在城镇有无住房农户进行异质性分析，也验证了上述研究结论。（3）控制变量中，户主年龄和房屋居住年限对农户宅基地退出意愿具有显著的正向影响，而家庭承包地面积和距离县城距离对农户宅基地退出意愿有显著的负向影响。结论 为进一步推动农户宅基地有序退出，应该完善农户宅基地退出后各项保障政策，改善和提升农户社会信任水平以及构建差别化宅基地退出机制和政策。

RISK PERCEPTION, SOCIAL TRUST AND WILLINGNESS OF FARMERS TO EXIT HOMESTEADBASED ON THE DATA FROM A SURVEY OF 418 RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN YANGZHOU, JIANGSU PROVINCE

It is an important practical significance to study the influence of risk perception on the willingness of farmers to exit homestead and the moderating role of social trust, explore the mechanism of risk perception on the willingness of farmers to exit homestead, guide farmers to exit homestead voluntarily and with compensation, improve the efficiency of rural land resource utilization, and promote urban-rural integration development. Based on the survey data of 418 peasant households in Yangzhou, Jiangsu province, this paper used the principal component analysis to measure the risk perception and social trust, and used the Logit model to test the theoretical hypothesis. The empirical results showed that risk perception had a negative impact on willingness of farmers to exit homestead, while social trust had a positive impact. To be specific, risk perception had a negative impact on households with high social trust and low social trust on their willingness to exit homestead. Social trust could mitigate the negative impact of risk perception on households with low social trust on their willingness to exit homestead. Interpersonal trust and institutional trust were conducive to the improvement of willingness of farmers to exit homestead. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted to distinguish households with or without housing in urban areas, which also verified the above research conclusions. Among the control variables, the age of household head and years of residence had a significant positive impact on willingness of farmers to exit homestead, while the area of contracted land and the distance from county seat had a significant negative impact on willingness of farmers to exit homestead. Therefore, in order to promote the orderly exit of rural household homestead, we should perfect all kinds of security policies, improve and enhance the social trust level of rural household, and construct an exit mechanism and policy of differential homestead.