证券市场系统风险评估与测定的“P2P法”探析——兼谈其在虚假陈述民事赔偿案中的应用

证券市场因虚假陈述引发的民事赔偿案中的系统风险一直没有科学统一的评估和测定方法。运用＂P2P法＂,按会计学上的先进先出原则确定卖出股票或持续持有股票的买入时点,然后通过相关分析和回归分析对各项指标科学赋权,计算出单笔交易的系统风险,最后求算术平均值得出整体系统风险。司法实践表明,＂P2P法＂是一种科学、可行的评估与测定证券市场系统风险的方法。

Research on ＂P2P＂ Method in the Assessment and Determination of System Risk in Securities Market——Also on its Application in Civil Compensation Suit Caused by False Statement

At present,there is no scientific and unified method to assess and determinate the system risk in the suit of civil compensation caused by false statement in stock market.This paper puts forward a method called ＂P2P＂,namely Point to Point Method.＂P2P＂ method first determines the time point when the securities were sold out or hold continuously based on the principle of First-In First-Out on accounting.Then it gives weight to each index by correlation analysis and regression analysis and works out the proportion of the system risk in a single transaction.Finally,by calculating the average of the proportion of the system risk of all the single transactions,we can know the proportion of the system risk in the whole.The justice practice points out that ＂P2P＂ method is a science,feasible evaluation and determination method of system risk in securities market.