The WTO trade effect |
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| Authors: | Pao-Li Chang Myoung-Jae Lee |
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| Affiliation: | aSchool of Economics, Singapore Management University, 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903, Singapore;bDepartment of Economics, Korea University, Anam-dong, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul 136–701, South Korea;cResearch School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia |
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| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification bias, allows general forms of heterogeneous membership effects, and addresses potential hidden selection bias. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects that are robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative GATT/WTO indicators, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, inclusion of multilateral resistance terms, and different matching methodologies. |
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| Keywords: | JEL classification: F13 F14 C14 C21 C23 |
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