我国加工贸易对一般贸易出口影响的实证分析

运用协整和Granger因果关系检验对我国一般贸易出口与加工贸易关系进行实证分析。结果表明,我国加工贸易发展促进了一般贸易出口的增长,但是加工贸易的出口和进口对一般贸易出口的影响作用不同,前者的增长对一般贸易出口产生了一定的"挤出效应",而后者的增长促进了一般贸易出口增长;且加工贸易出口与进口变化是导致我国一般贸易出口变化的原因,认为国家应该制定相应的政策,以促进我国加工贸易企业的技术升级。

Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Processing Trade on Normal Export in China

In this article,the relationship between normal export and processing trade in China was empirically analyzed by using co-integration test and Granger causality test.The results as follows: development of processing trade improves the growth of normal export;but the export and import of processing trade take different effects on the growth of normal export.Namely,the growth of the export of processing trade takes side effect on the growth of normal export;however,the growth of the import of processing trade takes side effect on the growth of normal export.Meantime,the changes of export & import of processing trade is the cause of the change of normal export.Then some suggestion was given that China should take some measures to update the level of technique of processing trade.