粮食价格预警模型与风险防范机制研究

随着我国粮食购销市场化的加速推进,影响粮食安全的各种不确定因素增多.笔者在对粮食价格运行状态的类型进行界定的基础上,构建了粮食价格预警的控制论模型,分析了粮食价格调控系统的构成.这一系统包括模型系统和专家系统两部分.模型系统又包括信息采集系统、信息分析与推断系统、风险识别系统、信息输出与警报系统、预控对策系统等.笔者还设计了三种粮食价格定量调控模型,并对构建粮食价格风险防范机制提出了建议.

Research on the Early Warning Model of Grain Price and Risk Prevention Mechanism

With the accelerating advancement of the reform of the grain marketing system of our country, the kinds of uncertain factors affecting grain security increase. On the basis of defining the operating state of grain price, this thesis constructs a cybernetics model for grain price early warning and analyzes the structure of regulation system of grain price. This system includes two parts: a model system and an expert system. The model system comprises an information collecting system, an information analyzing and inferring system, a risk identifying system, an information output and warning system, and a countermeasure early controlling system, etc. This thesis designs three kinds of grain price quantitative regulating models and puts forwards some suggestions for constructing grain price risk preventing mechanism.