(1) Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Abstract:
The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last
10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into
empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology
respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases
of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of
the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on
long run economic growth and development.