| “十二五”时期中国水利投资预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴丽萍,陈宝峰,张旺.“十二五”时期中国水利投资预测研究[J].经济与管理,2011,25(8):5-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴丽萍 陈宝峰 张旺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京,100083
2. 水利部发展研究中心战略处,北京,100036 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1952—2009年的统计数据,运用自回归移动平均模型和多项式分布滞后模型对中国"十二五"时期的国内生产总值和水利投资额进行预测。实证结果表明:多项式分布滞后模型的预测效果比仅考虑当期经济发展水平对水利投资的影响所建立的传统线性预测模型更为理想;在此基础上,运用自回归移动平均模型可预测出中国"十二五"时期的水利投资额。
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| 关 键 词： | 水利投资预测 多项式分布滞后模型 自回归移动平均模型 |
Forecast on Water Conservancy Investment in China in the Twelfth Five Period |
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| Wu Liping,Chen Baofeng,Zhang Wang.Forecast on Water Conservancy Investment in China in the Twelfth Five Period[J].Economy and Management,2011,25(8):5-10. |
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| Authors: | Wu Liping Chen Baofeng Zhang Wang |
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| Institution: | Wu Liping1,Chen Baofeng1,Zhang Wang2(1.School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China,2.Department of Strategy,Development and Research Center of MWR,Beijing 100036,China) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the statistic data between 1952 and 2009,this paper applies ARIMA and PDL to forecast the gross domestic products and water investment between 2011~2015 in the twelfth five period.The results show that the forecasting effect of PDL model is better than traditional linear forecast model which only considers the economic level of the current period.Additionally,this paper calculates the quota of water investment in the twelfth five period. |
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| Keywords: | water conservancy investment forecast PDL ARIMA |
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