实物期权在项目信贷评估中的运用

近20年来,众多国内外学者对实物期权进行了大量研究并得出结论:决策灵活性确实增加了项目整体评估价值。但这些研究基本上是从项目管理者角度进行分析的。本文着重从银行角度探讨了实物期权在信贷评估过程中的作用,结果表明:在传统的以折现现金流法(DiscountedCashFlow,DCF)为主导的项目评估过程中融入实物期权思想,将使对高科技类项目的评价更加客观、全面。对项目投资决策选择权的分析可以加强信贷工作人员对项目贷款风险趋势的事前判断,对项目在未来运行中的不确定性进行评估,并通过在合同中增加约束性条款,实现项目权利向银行权利的转化,以降低银行信贷风险。

Application of Option in Kind in Project Credit Appraisal

A lot of research work has been done about option in kind by scholars at home and abroad in the past 20 years with the conclusion that flexibility in decision making does add value to overall appraisal of a project. However, such research is conducted basically from the point view of project management. In this paper, the bulk of attention is laid on the role of option in kind in credit appraisal. Findings show that: when option in kind is incorporated in the traditional project appraisal featuring discount cash flow, hi-tech project appraisal will become more factual and inclusive. Analysis of decision-making option in project investment will help to improve the ability of loan officers to foresee risk tendencies, evaluate uncertainties in future operations and turn project rights into banking rights by adding binding clauses in contracts to lower banking credit risks.