中国农村全面小康社会建设的综合评价研究

本文首先界定了“农村全面小康社会”,然后通过定性分析初步拟定了一个较大的候选评价指标体系,再后建立了连续14年的31个省市自治区和全国水平的数据库,通过一次差分法剔除趋势性和伪相关,通过Peareson相关检验法剔除重复表达指标,最后确定了一个只包含16个指标的评价指标体系。通过采用适当的农村全面小康指数(ROXI)和农村人类发展指数(RHDI)的计算方法得出评价结果如下:首先,2003年末全国的农村全面小康才实现15.6%,农民收入水平与结构、农村社会保障和农村科教卫子系统的差距较大;其次,东中西部三个地区间的ROXI差距大,东部要明显快于中西部;第三,RHDI与ROXI所反映的各省排序出入不大,说明ROXI有较好的衡量经济社会发展的功能。与RHDI相比,ROXI的优点是能较好地反映各省的经济社会发展差距。

Comprehensive Assessment of the Construction of China's Rural Overall Well off(Xiaokang) Society

The paper defines the concept of "Rural overall well off(Xiaokang) society" firstly.After a tentative design of a relatively large system of candidate indices through qualitative analysis,the research constructs a dataset which collects the related data of 31 provinces from 1990 to 2003.The research screens out an assessing system of 16 indices after eliminating the trend and fake correlation by the difference of order 1 and eliminating the repeated indices by Pearson correlation test.Using suitable methodologies the research also calculates the "Rural Overall Xiaokang Index"(ROXI) and "Rural Human Development Index"(RHDI),the major results are reported as follows: First of all,ROXI at national level is 15.6%,the subsystems of indices of "the level and structure of farmers' income","rural social security" and "rural sci-technology and education" lag far behind the standards.Second,the difference of ROXIs between the eastern,middle and western areas is large,the eastern area as a whole is much better off than the western area as a whole.For example, the difference of ROXI between the Tibet and Beijing is 100%;Third,RHDI and ROXI have the similar assessing results,reflecting that the ROXI has the excellent function of measuring the development of economy and society.Compared with RHDI,ROXI has an advantage of better reflecting the disparity among provinces in social and economic development.