Development of zone system for macro-level traffic safety analysis |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Urban Transport Research Center, School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, PR China;2. Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China;3. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510641, PR China;4. Department of Civil, Environment & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Various geographic units have been used in macro-level modeling. Amongst these units, traffic analysis zones (TAZs) have been broadly employed in many macroscopic safety studies. Nevertheless, no studies questioned the validity of TAZs for crash analysis at the macro-level crash modeling. In this study, we point out several possible problems of TAZs as spatial units for macroscopic safety studies. Current TAZs with homogenous crash rates were combined into new single zones. Then we created ten new zonal systems by different zone aggregation levels. The optimal zonal scale for traffic safety analysis zones (TSAZ) was determined using the Brown-Forsythe test. It was found that the zone system with about 1:2 aggregation was the optimal zone system for macroscopic safety modeling. Thus we develop what we call traffic safety analysis zones (TSAZs) that has the potential of reducing several possible problems of TAZs. Also it was shown that TSAZ based models had better fit compared to TAZ based models. |
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| Keywords: | Traffic safety analysis zones Macro-level analysis MAUP Bayesian Poisson Log-normal model Transportation safety planning Regionalization |
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