具有微观基础的上海市住宅价格影响因素研究

文章根据特征价格模型和1120个上海市新建住宅交易样本建立了上海市住宅价格指数,并以此为基础修正CREIS上海指数得到上海同质住宅价格指数,从而有效的排除了住宅微观属性差异对价格波动的影响。以1995—2010年上海市宏观经济数据为样本,从供给、需求、宏观、投资4个方面选取16个社会经济指标,通过主成分分析得到影响上海市住宅价格的4个主成分,选取主成分代表指标求出其与上海同质价格指数的回归方程。研究结论认为,宏观经济发展是上海市住宅价格波动的主要影响因素,和供求因素共同决定了住宅价格,投资因素对与住宅价格波动并无显著影响。

Research on Influencing Factors of House Price in Shanghai Based on Micro-foundation

According to the hedonic price model and 1120 samples of new residential transaction in Shanghai,the paper built the Shanghai house price index to modify CREIS Shanghai index to get Shanghai homogeneous housing price index.It can effec tively eliminate the influence of residential property differences on the price fluctuation.Taking Shanghai macroeconomic data from 1995 to 2010 as samples,choosing 16 socioeconomic indicators from supply,demand,macro and investment,this pa per selected principal component represented indexes to build regression equation of homogeneous price index in Shanghai.The study showed that the macro economic development in Shanghai city was the main factors of residential price fluctuations,which determined the house price with the supply and demand factors,and investment factors had no significant impact on house price.